Analysis: Iran and Information
13 Days after the election, news from Iran is becoming more sporadic and its reliability is constantly in question. Therefore, all analysis has also become more questionable. This is even a larger problem in the country itself, as state censorship and blocking of information flows is extremely tight. One of the most contentious issues remians the real outcome of the elections. Some say the results are completely fabricated, while others believe the official results need to be seriously analysed, to see if they are realistic. Others think the results can not be that far off, and that Ahmadinejad was the winner. In this view, his populist/clientalist policies, nationalistic rethoric and charisma have enabled him to lure more than half the population.
How to react to this as relative outsiders? First of all, we should try to establish as much relatively undisputed facts as possible. One of the most important points is that some of the basic preconditions of free and fair elections have not been met:
- The elections have not been monitored by independent observers.
- The votes have not been counted by an independent authority. The ministry of domestic affairs is controlled by Ahmadinejad supporters and the Guardian Council generally supports Ahmadinejad (source).
- Due to state monopoly om most media, the population has not been able to freely gather information to make an educated choice The crackdown on journalists has intensified under Ahmadinejad.
It should also be noted that electoral surveys in Iran are notoriously unreliable, due to state interference.
Furthermore, the state has created an almost complete media blackout, by refusing foreign journalists to work, blocking or restricting phone communication, internet acess and satelite channels. Camera’s, laptops and phones with foto/video shooting capabilities have been confiscated. This means we do not know maybe 80% of the things that are happening. Also think of the events outside of Teheran. Information from there is especially scarce and ureliable.
From these facts, a few conclusions can be drawn:
- Speculations on the outcome of the elections are not very relevant, due to the lack of information and the severe defections of the electoral process.
- Mousavi and the Green movement have made only one official political demand so far: free and fair elections. This demand is reasonable in the light of the above mentioned points.
- As long as this demand has not been met, Iran should be considered a dictatorship, as the previous presence of limited political pluralism has been negated.
Links to news stories and high quality comments
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Iranian Source Supports Obama’s Reaction
“Dear friend, if you have any contacts within the American Administration, please send them this message on behalf of us, ordinary Iranians in Iran (whose interests and concerns are very different from those of the exiled Iranians in the United States and in Europe who do not yet understand the mentality here and who have been cut off from the Iranian society for too long). Tell your contacts in the Administration that their point of view regarding Iran is by far the best position that an American Government has ever taken. We appreciate this and thank the President.
During the last two or three decades not one American president had “understood” Iran. All of them got caught in the traps of the mollahs, despite themselves having to play the bad cop .. but this time the intelligent president has decided not to join in their game, bravo.
It is normal that Obama is criticized vividly by most of the Los Angeles Iranians (and by the Republicans): since a long time they have been asking for just one thing : that America attack Iran and change the regime so that they get their possessions and their former jobs and privileges back, without wanting to know what today’s young Iranian wants here and now. It makes me think of the Cubans in Florida … they don’t consider the interests of their country but only what is due to them.”
Links to news stories (updated regularly) and high quality comments
June 21t
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Lashes Out at Election Comittee
Mousavi throws blame back on regime
Injured Demonstrators Arrested at Hospitals
Iranian Bus Workers Join the Resistance
Mousavi Spokesperson Speaks Out
Khamene’i : “I’m following you all on twitter”
Important! Further scientific disproval of rural support for Ahmadinejad
Twitter on the Barricades: Six Lessons Learned
Street Battle: Riot Police Fleeing from Crowd
The Vindication And Refutation Of Neoconservatism
Mousavi’s Latest Statement: “Broken-Hearted Parents”
Links to news stories (updated regularly) and high quality comments
Found on June 20th
Chaos and Protest: well fed blog by Andrew Sullivan
Shiraz University
Video of Large Rally (Helicopters indicate this is today)
Another Video of Riots (warning graphic image)
Mousavi’s open letter to the people of Iran. Released tonight at 9:21pm. It states that he stands with the people to protect the original aims of the revolution to reach human rights and democracy. He states that what they got instead was fraud, injustice, torture and lies. He states why he will not stand down and why all the security forces of Iran are brothers and sisters that should support the nation. He says the body charged with investigating the elections is not a neutral body. He calls on authorities to pull the security forces and basij out of the streets and allow the people’s voices to be heard peacefully.
Iran police clash with protesters
‘Iraanse lente zet door’ (Dutch)
A Supreme Leader Loses His Aura as Iranians Flock to the Streets
Links to news stories (updated regularly) and high quality comments
Found on June 19th
!A Different Iranian Revolution!
Ayatollah backs election result
Friday Sermon Gives Permission for Bloodbath
Abtahi: It was a huge swindling
Crackdown on national and foreign press intensifies
Iran’s election: people vs power
Photos and Report: Iran and Iranians Deserve Better
Iran Election 2009: A different perspective
Video: Moussavi Green Wave Part 1
The End Game in Iran: Four Ways the Crisis May Resolve
Video: What’s going on in Iran
Video: Shouting “Allaho Akbar” at night
Gauntlet Thrown in Iran (quote: From an Iranian source, it appears that for Mir Hossein Mousavi, Ali Akbar Rafsanjani, Medhi Karroubi, and other leaders of the movement, there’s no backing down. Here’s what he said: “Mousavi and the others cannot compromise. They know that if Ahmadinejad remains in power, he will try to eliminate all of them. All of them. And it will be violent.”)
Iran analyst: Is Mousavi willing to risk “slaughter” in the streets?
Links to news stories (updated regularly) and high quality comments
Found on June 18th
Shout in Unison: There Has Been a Coup
Photos and Report: Today I Felt Proud to be an Iranian
Ahmadinejad Takes Revenge on the University
Opposition attacks Iran’s government websites
Fears of a “Tehran Tiananmen” Growing as Iran Crisis Deepens
House to House Arrests of Prominent Personalities
Iran wants nuclear weapon technology -ElBaradei
Twitter Is a Player In Iran’s Drama
UPDATE: Arbitrary Detentions in Iran Expand
Arrests and killings rise as election protests grip Iran
Grand Ayatollah Rejects Election Results
Eyewitness Report of Monday’s Events
For more, see: http://www.voteforiran.com/
Left my home in Tajrish along with my family at 3 p.m. We went down Valiast Street which is the main northern-southern avenue in Tehran and entered the Evin Exp’way which leads to Enghelab Street. We knew that people are supposed to gather in Enghelab Sq. (Revolution Sq.) at 4 and march toward Azadi Sq. (Freedom Sq.). From Gisha Bridge onwards, we saw people walking down. Cars were blowing their horns and people were showing victory sign. We went to Navvab Street and parked our car at the end of the street. Then we took a taxi to bring us back to the Enghelab Street. On our way, near Jomhouri Sq. (Republic Sq.), I saw a group of about 20 militia with long beards and batons on motorbikes. My hand was out of the car window with a little green ribbon (the sign of reformists) around my finger. One of the militia told me to throw that ribbon away. I showed him a finger. All of a sudden, about 15 people attacked me inside the car. They beat me with their batons and wanted to pull me out. My wife and my daughter who were sitting in the back seat cried and hold me tight. I also hold myself tight on the chair. They wanted to shatter the car windows. The driver went out and explained that he is a taxi and we are his passengers and he has no fault. After about 5 minutes,they left. My elbow hurts severely. Then, a young man from their group came and kissed my elbow! I told him: You know, I don’t hate you. I am like you with the only difference that I know more and you are ignorant. He apologized and left.
We joined the crowd in Enghelab Street.
Read carefully:
What I saw today was the most elegant scene I had ever witnessed in my life. The huge number of people were marching hand in hand in full peace. Silence. Silence was everywhere. There was no slogan. No violence. Hands were up in victory sign with green ribbons. People carried placards which read: Silence. Old and young, man and woman of all social groups were marching cheerfully. This was a magnificent show of solidarity. Enghelab Street which is the widest avenue in Tehran was full of people. I was told that the march has begun in Ferdowsi Sq. and the end of the march was now in Imam Hossein Sq. to the further east of Tehran while on the other end people had already gathered in Azadi Sq. The length of this street is about 6 kilometers. The estimate is about 2 million people. On the way, we passed a police department and a militia (Baseej) base. In both places, the doors were closed and we could see fully-armed riot police and militia watching the people from behind the fences. Near Sharif University of Technology where the students had chased away Ahmadinejad a few days ago, Mirhossein Mousavi (the reformist elect president) and Karrubi (the other reformist candidate spoke to people for a few minutes which was received by cries of praise and applause. I felt proud to find myself among such a huge number of passionate people who were showing the most reasonable act of protest. Frankly, I didn’t expect such a political maturity from emotional Iranians who easily get excited. My family and I had put stickers on our mouths to represent the suppression. Placards that people carried were different; from poems by the national poet Ahmad Shamlu to light-hearted slogans against Ahmadinejad. Examples include: ” To slaughter us/ why did you need to invite us / to such an elegant party” (Poem by Shamlu). ” Hello! Hello! 999? / Our votes were stolen” or ” The Miracle of the Third Millenium: 2 x 2 = 24 millions” (alluding to the claim by Government that Ahmadinejad obtained 24 million votes) , “Where is my vote?” , ” Give me back my vote” and many other.
We arrived in Azadi Square where the entire square was full of population. It is said that around 500,000 people can be accommodated in this huge square and it was full. Suddenly we saw smoke from Jenah Freeway and heard the gunshot. People were scared at first but then went forward. I just heard the gunshots but my sister who had been on the scene at that part told me later that she saw 4 militia came out from a house and shot a girl. Then they shot a young boy in his eye and the bullet came out of his ear. She said that 4 people were shot. At least one person dead has been confirmed. People arrested one of the Baseeji militia but the three others ran away when they ran out of bullet. At around 8 we went back on foot. On the way back people were still in the street and were chanting Allah Akbar (God is Great).
I was coming home at around 2 a.m. In parkway, I saw about ten buses full of armed riot police parked on the side of the street. Then I saw scattered militia in civil clothes with clubs in hand patroling the empty streets. In Tajrish Square, I saw a very young boy (around 16) with a club who was looking at the cars to see if he can find something to attack. I don’t know how and under what teachings can young boys change into militia.
I came home. Tomorrow, people will gather again in Valiasr Square for another peaceful march toward the IRIB building which controls all the media and which spreads filthy lies. The day before Yesterday, Ahmadinejad had hold his victory ceremony. Government buses had transported all his supporters from nearby cities. There was full coverage of that ceremony where fruit juice and cake was plenty. A maximum of 100,000 had gathered to hear his speech. These included all the militia and the soldiers and all supporters he could gather by the use of free TV publicity. Today, at least 2 million came only relying on word of mouth while reformists have no newspaper, no radio, no TV. All their internet sites are filtered as well as social networks such as facebook. Text messaging and mobile communication was also cut off during the demonstration. Since yesterday, the Iranian TV was announcing that there is no license for any gathering and riot police will severely punish anybody who may demonstrates. Ahmadinejad called the opposition as a bunch of insignificant dirt who try to make the taste of victory bitter to the nation. He also called the western leaders as a bunch of “filthy homosexuals”. All these disgusting remarks was today answered by that largest demonstration ever. Older people compared the demonstration of today with the Ashura Demonstration of 1979 which marks the downfall of the Shah regime and even said that it outnumbered that event.
The militia burnt a house themselves to find the excuse to commit violence. People neutralized their tactic to a large degree by their solidarity, their wisdom and their denial to enage in any violent act.
I feel sad for the loss of those young girls and boys. It is said that they also killed 3 students last night in their attack at Tehran University residence halls. I heard that a number of professors of Sharif University and AmirKabir University (Tehran Polytechnic) have resigned.
Democracy is a long way ahead. I may not be alive to see that day. With eyes full of tear in these early hours of Tuesday 16th June 2009, I glorify the courage and bravery of those martyrs and I hope that their blood will make every one of us more committed to freedom, to democracy and to human rights.
Viva Freedom, Viva Democracy, Viva Iran
p.s.: If you find this report of any value, please share it with as many people as possible. Facebook is filtered and internet is very slow in Iran. Please somebody put this on facebook.
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