Analysis: Iran and Information

13 Days after the election,  news from Iran is becoming more sporadic and its reliability is constantly in question. Therefore, all analysis has also become more questionable. This is even a larger problem in the country itself, as state censorship and blocking of information flows is extremely tight.  One of the most contentious issues remians the real outcome of the elections. Some say the results are completely fabricated, while others believe the official results need to be seriously analysed, to  see if they are realistic. Others think the results can not be that far off, and that Ahmadinejad was the winner. In this view, his populist/clientalist policies, nationalistic rethoric and charisma have enabled him to lure more than half the population.

How to react to this as relative outsiders? First of all, we should try to establish as much relatively undisputed facts as possible. One of the most important points is that some of the basic preconditions of free and fair elections have not been met:

• The elections have not been monitored by independent observers.
• The votes have not been counted by an independent authority. The ministry of domestic affairs is controlled by Ahmadinejad supporters and the Guardian Council generally supports Ahmadinejad (source).
• Due to state monopoly om most media, the population has not been able to freely gather information to make an educated choice  The crackdown on journalists has intensified under Ahmadinejad.

It should also be noted that electoral surveys in Iran are notoriously unreliable, due to state interference.

Furthermore, the state has created an almost complete media blackout, by refusing foreign journalists to work, blocking or restricting phone communication, internet acess and satelite channels. Camera’s, laptops and phones with foto/video shooting capabilities have been confiscated. This means we do not know maybe 80% of the things that are happening. Also think of the events outside of Teheran. Information from there is especially scarce and ureliable.

From these facts, a few conclusions can be drawn:

• Speculations on the outcome of the elections are not very relevant, due to the lack of information and the severe defections of the electoral process.
• Mousavi and the Green movement have made only one official political demand so far: free and fair elections. This demand is reasonable in the light of the above  mentioned points.
• As long as this demand has not been met, Iran should be considered a dictatorship, as the previous presence of limited political pluralism has been negated.