How to react to this as relative outsiders? First of all, we should try to establish as much relatively undisputed facts as possible. One of the most important points is that some of the basic preconditions of free and fair elections have not been met:

• The elections have not been monitored by independent observers.
• The votes have not been counted by an independent authority. The ministry of domestic affairs is controlled by Ahmadinejad supporters and the Guardian Council generally supports Ahmadinejad (source).
• Due to state monopoly om most media, the population has not been able to freely gather information to make an educated choice  The crackdown on journalists has intensified under Ahmadinejad.

It should also be noted that electoral surveys in Iran are notoriously unreliable, due to state interference.

Furthermore, the state has created an almost complete media blackout, by refusing foreign journalists to work, blocking or restricting phone communication, internet acess and satelite channels. Camera’s, laptops and phones with foto/video shooting capabilities have been confiscated. This means we do not know maybe 80% of the things that are happening. Also think of the events outside of Teheran. Information from there is especially scarce and ureliable.

From these facts, a few conclusions can be drawn:

• Speculations on the outcome of the elections are not very relevant, due to the lack of information and the severe defections of the electoral process.
• Mousavi and the Green movement have made only one official political demand so far: free and fair elections. This demand is reasonable in the light of the above  mentioned points.
• As long as this demand has not been met, Iran should be considered a dictatorship, as the previous presence of limited political pluralism has been negated.

Ahmadinejad’s Power Base: A diagram

Why Iran Matters

Top Ten Players in Iran’s Power Struggle

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Lashes Out at Election Comittee

Mousavi throws blame back on regime

Injured Demonstrators Arrested at Hospitals

!5th Statetement by Mousavi!

Iranian Bus Workers Join the Resistance

Mousavi Spokesperson Speaks Out

Khatami Issues Statement

New Protests Today

Khamene’i : “I’m following you all on twitter”

Important! Further scientific disproval of rural support for Ahmadinejad

Twitter on the Barricades: Six Lessons Learned

Street Battle: Riot Police Fleeing from Crowd

Updates 21 June

The Vindication And Refutation Of Neoconservatism

Clashes show depth of fury

Mousavi’s Latest Statement: “Broken-Hearted Parents”

The Iranian Revolt

Iran protests ‘to go ahead’

Chaos and Protest: well fed blog by Andrew Sullivan

Pics of today’s protests

More Pics

Shiraz University

Video of Large Rally (Helicopters indicate this is today)

Video of Riots

Another Video of Riots (warning graphic image)

Mousavi ‘Ready for Martyrdom’

Statement Mousavi:

Mousavi’s open letter to the people of Iran. Released tonight at 9:21pm. It states that he stands with the people to protect the original aims of the revolution to reach human rights and democracy. He states that what they got instead was fraud, injustice, torture and lies. He states why he will not stand down and why all the security forces of Iran are brothers and sisters that should support the nation. He says the body charged with investigating the elections is not a neutral body. He calls on authorities to pull the security forces and basij out of the streets and allow the people’s voices to be heard peacefully.

Iran police clash with protesters

Parallels with 1979

‘Iraanse lente zet door’ (Dutch)

A Supreme Leader Loses His Aura as Iranians Flock to the Streets

Round-up of Today’s Protests in Iran from YouTube

!A Different Iranian Revolution!

Ayatollah backs election result

Friday Sermon Gives Permission for Bloodbath

Abtahi: It was a huge swindling

Crackdown on national and foreign press intensifies

Iran’s election: people vs power

Photos and Report: Iran and Iranians Deserve Better

Beautiful Pics: Kosoof.com

Iran Election 2009: A different perspective

Video: Moussavi Green Wave Part 1

The End Game in Iran: Four Ways the Crisis May Resolve

Video: What’s going on in Iran

Good Update Site

Video: Shouting “Allaho Akbar” at night

Iran analyst: Is Mousavi willing to risk “slaughter” in the streets?

Obama: The World is Watching

Key excerpts: Khamenei speech

Why Ahmadinejad Did Not Win

Shout in Unison: There Has Been a Coup

Photos and Report: Today I Felt Proud to be an Iranian

Ahmadinejad Takes Revenge on the University

Opposition attacks Iran’s government websites

Fears of a “Tehran Tiananmen” Growing as Iran Crisis Deepens

House to House Arrests of Prominent Personalities

Iran wants nuclear weapon technology -ElBaradei

Twitter Is a Player In Iran’s Drama

UPDATE: Arbitrary Detentions in Iran Expand

Arrests and killings rise as election protests grip Iran

Demonstrations in Iran

Locations of Protests

Grand Ayatollah Rejects Election Results

Iran’s Rural Vote and Election Fraud

Iran protests: live

Google go Green

Students Beaten with Daggers and Machetes

Left my home in Tajrish along with my family at 3 p.m. We went down Valiast Street which is the main northern-southern avenue in Tehran and entered the Evin Exp’way which leads to Enghelab Street. We knew that people are supposed to gather in Enghelab Sq. (Revolution Sq.) at 4 and march toward Azadi Sq. (Freedom Sq.). From Gisha Bridge onwards, we saw people walking down. Cars were blowing their horns and people were showing victory sign. We went to Navvab Street and parked our car at the end of the street. Then we took a taxi to bring us back to the Enghelab Street. On our way, near Jomhouri Sq. (Republic Sq.), I saw a group of about 20 militia with long beards and batons on motorbikes. My hand was out of the car window with a little green ribbon (the sign of reformists) around my finger. One of the militia told me to throw that ribbon away. I showed him a finger. All of a sudden, about 15 people attacked me inside the car. They beat me with their batons and wanted to pull me out. My wife and my daughter who were sitting in the back seat cried and hold me tight. I also hold myself tight on the chair. They wanted to shatter the car windows. The driver went out and explained that he is a taxi and we are his passengers and he has no fault. After about 5 minutes,they left. My elbow hurts severely. Then, a young man from their group came and kissed my elbow! I told him: You know, I don’t hate you. I am like you with the only difference that I know more and you are ignorant. He apologized and left.
We joined the crowd in Enghelab Street.
Read carefully:
What I saw today was the most elegant scene I had ever witnessed in my life. The huge number of people were marching hand in hand in full peace. Silence. Silence was everywhere. There was  no slogan. No violence. Hands were up in victory sign with green ribbons. People carried placards which read: Silence. Old and young, man and woman of all social groups were marching cheerfully. This was a magnificent show of solidarity. Enghelab Street which is the widest avenue in Tehran was full of people. I was told that the march has begun in Ferdowsi Sq. and the end of the march was now in Imam Hossein Sq. to the further east of Tehran while on the other end people  had already gathered in Azadi Sq. The length of this street is about 6 kilometers. The estimate is about 2 million people. On the way, we passed a police department and a militia (Baseej) base. In both places, the doors were closed and we could see fully-armed riot police and militia watching the people from behind the fences. Near Sharif University of Technology where the students had chased away Ahmadinejad a few days ago, Mirhossein Mousavi (the reformist elect president) and Karrubi (the other reformist candidate spoke to people for a few minutes which was received by cries of praise and applause. I felt proud to find myself among such a huge number of passionate people who were showing the most reasonable act of protest. Frankly, I didn’t expect such a political maturity from emotional Iranians who easily get excited. My family and I had put stickers on our mouths to represent the suppression. Placards that people carried were different; from poems by the national poet Ahmad Shamlu to light-hearted slogans against Ahmadinejad. Examples include: ” To slaughter us/ why did you need to invite us / to such an elegant party” (Poem by Shamlu). ” Hello! Hello! 999? / Our votes were stolen” or ” The Miracle of the Third Millenium: 2 x 2 = 24 millions” (alluding to the claim by Government that Ahmadinejad obtained 24 million votes) , “Where is my vote?” , ” Give me back my vote” and many other.
We arrived in Azadi Square where the entire square was full of population. It is said that around 500,000 people can be accommodated in this huge square and it was full. Suddenly we saw smoke from Jenah Freeway and heard the gunshot. People were scared at first but then went forward. I just heard the gunshots but my sister who had been on the scene at that part told me later that she saw 4 militia came out from a house and shot a girl. Then they shot a young boy in his eye and the bullet came out of his ear. She said that 4 people were shot. At least one person dead has been confirmed. People arrested one of the Baseeji militia but the three others ran away when they ran out of bullet. At around 8 we went back on foot. On the way back people were still in the street and were chanting Allah Akbar (God is  Great).
I was coming home at around 2 a.m. In parkway, I saw about ten buses full of armed riot police parked on the side of the street. Then I saw scattered militia in civil clothes with clubs in hand patroling the empty streets. In Tajrish Square, I saw a very young boy (around 16) with a club who was looking at the cars to see if he can find something to attack. I don’t know how and under what teachings can young boys change into militia.
I came home. Tomorrow, people will gather again in Valiasr Square for another peaceful march toward the IRIB building which controls all the media and which spreads filthy lies. The day before Yesterday, Ahmadinejad had hold his victory ceremony. Government buses had transported all his supporters from nearby cities. There was full coverage of that ceremony where fruit juice and cake was plenty. A maximum of 100,000 had gathered to hear his speech. These included all the militia and the soldiers and all supporters he could gather by the use of free TV publicity. Today, at least 2 million came only relying on word of mouth while reformists have no newspaper, no radio, no TV. All their internet sites are filtered as well as social networks such as facebook. Text messaging and mobile communication was also cut off during the demonstration. Since yesterday, the Iranian TV was announcing that there is no license for any gathering and riot police will severely punish anybody who may demonstrates. Ahmadinejad called the opposition as a bunch of insignificant dirt who try to make the taste of victory bitter to the nation. He also called the western leaders as a bunch of “filthy homosexuals”. All these disgusting remarks was today answered by that largest demonstration ever. Older people compared the demonstration of today with the Ashura Demonstration of 1979 which marks the downfall of the Shah regime and even said that it outnumbered that event.
The militia burnt a house themselves to find the excuse to commit violence. People neutralized their tactic to a large degree by their solidarity, their wisdom and their denial to enage in any violent act.
I feel sad for the loss of those young girls and boys. It is said that they also killed 3 students last night in their attack at Tehran University residence halls. I heard that a number of professors of Sharif University and AmirKabir University (Tehran Polytechnic) have resigned.
Democracy is a long way ahead. I may not be alive to see that day. With eyes full of tear in these early hours of Tuesday 16th June 2009, I glorify the courage and bravery of those martyrs and I hope that their blood will make every one of us more committed to freedom, to democracy and to human rights.
Viva Freedom, Viva Democracy, Viva Iran
 
p.s.: If you find this report of any value, please share it with as many people as possible. Facebook is filtered and internet is very slow in Iran. Please somebody put this on facebook.

The whole thesis can also be downloaded as one large PDF file. Follow this Link.

© Erik van Zuylen, 2009. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this blog’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Erik van Zuylen with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.

Please cite like this: Van Zuylen (2009): ‘Scenario’s of Political Regime Change in Iran’. Masters Thesis, University of Amsterdam. URL:http://iranscenarios.files.wordpress.com/2009/05/ma-thesis-erik-van-zuylen-scenarios-of-political-regime-change-in-iran.pdf